New electoral college data from Morning Consult shows Hillary Clinton winning the November election handily if Republicans nominate either frontrunner Donald Trump or his rival Sen. Ted Cruz. But Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who has only won one state – his own – in the primaries and has hitched his presidential ambitions to a contested GOP convention would easily beat the Democratic frontrunner in the general election. The Morning Consult used polling data from 44,000 respondents to tabulate which states are most in play in three different general election match-up scenarios. Of the three GOP hopefuls, Cruz has the weakest showing against the former secretary of state. She wins the swing state of Florida easily.
She gets Virginia too, a state that flipped to the Democrats during the Obama era. In a Clinton-versus-Cruz scenario, Ohio tilts toward Clinton, along with Colorado and Wisconsin. Maine is also within the margin of error. Whereas, Georgia and Alaska are close, tilting toward Cruz, but within the margin of error as well. This map shows Clinton winning 332 electoral college votes to Cruz's 206. Candidates need 270 to win the White House. It's Maine that gives Trump a performance edge over Cruz, though both Republicans still lose to Clinton, the Morning Consult polls show.
While Clinton still wins Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan, she performs not as strongly in those states when Trump is at the top of the Republican ballot. Trump has properties and is a well-known name in both Florida and Nevada. In New York, a state where both frontrunners are currently vying for delegates in the primaries and both candidates have home team status, Clinton bests The Donald in the general election 52,8 percent to 33.6 percent.
Trump has suggested in the past that New York, along with Pennsylvania and Ohio, could be flipped if he's the GOP nominee. Kasich has the numbers, however, to actually back up this claim. The polls find that Kasich grabs up his home state of Ohio, its next door neighbor Pennsylvania, which is the state where the governor grew up, along with Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Oregon, Maine and New Hampshire.
That match-up breaks up the traditionally blue Northeast and makes the Midwest the central region of the campaign, instead of the fighting centering on the swing states of Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia, which Clinton wins over Kasich, while still losing the White House. The pollsters note that these maps still have room to change as about 20 percent of voters remain undecided. The maps show who is currently winning a plurality in each of the states and, with that, the support of the electoral colleg
She gets Virginia too, a state that flipped to the Democrats during the Obama era. In a Clinton-versus-Cruz scenario, Ohio tilts toward Clinton, along with Colorado and Wisconsin. Maine is also within the margin of error. Whereas, Georgia and Alaska are close, tilting toward Cruz, but within the margin of error as well. This map shows Clinton winning 332 electoral college votes to Cruz's 206. Candidates need 270 to win the White House. It's Maine that gives Trump a performance edge over Cruz, though both Republicans still lose to Clinton, the Morning Consult polls show.
While Clinton still wins Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan, she performs not as strongly in those states when Trump is at the top of the Republican ballot. Trump has properties and is a well-known name in both Florida and Nevada. In New York, a state where both frontrunners are currently vying for delegates in the primaries and both candidates have home team status, Clinton bests The Donald in the general election 52,8 percent to 33.6 percent.
Trump has suggested in the past that New York, along with Pennsylvania and Ohio, could be flipped if he's the GOP nominee. Kasich has the numbers, however, to actually back up this claim. The polls find that Kasich grabs up his home state of Ohio, its next door neighbor Pennsylvania, which is the state where the governor grew up, along with Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Oregon, Maine and New Hampshire.
That match-up breaks up the traditionally blue Northeast and makes the Midwest the central region of the campaign, instead of the fighting centering on the swing states of Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia, which Clinton wins over Kasich, while still losing the White House. The pollsters note that these maps still have room to change as about 20 percent of voters remain undecided. The maps show who is currently winning a plurality in each of the states and, with that, the support of the electoral colleg